Bangladesh Country Overview:
Bangladesh is located in south Asia. It has a population of around 150 million making it one of the most densely populated places on the planet. It’s economy has grown at a rate of 6%. In the last decade and it has managed to pull 10% (15 million) of its population out of poverty since 1992. In the last two decades it has managed to increase its life expectancy by 10 years from 59 to 69 and reduced its’ infant mortality rate from 97 to 37 death per 1000 birth (World Bank, 2014)
According to The Economics in it Briefing on its November 3rd, 2012 issue:
“The most dramatic period of improvement in human health in history is often taken to be that of late-19th-century Japan, during the remarkable modernization of the Meiji transition. Bangladesh’s record on child and maternal mortality has been comparable in scale.” (The Economist , 2012)
Nevertheless Bangladesh still has almost one third of its people (47 million) living below poverty line (World Bank, 2014) It faces a serious developmental challenge to build up on this strong economic growth and bring itself up to a middle-income level country and will require sustained efforts on many fronts to realize this goal.
Vulnerability to Natural Disasters.
Bangladesh is the most prone countries to Natural Disasters and its effects. Natural disaster such as flood and cyclone are a common feature affecting most of the country. The northern and eastern regions are in an earthquake prone zone, while the southeastern part of the country is vulnerable to cyclones, floods, droughts, earthquakes and landslides. (Earth Institute, Columbia University) It is one of the most densely populated areas in the world and is located on the largest delta system in the planet, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta thus further increasing vulnerability during time of crisis. Climate and Rainfall in Bangladesh is determined by the annual monsoon season during which 80% of annual rainfall is received. Major flood during this period are common occurrences in Bangladesh due to its low-lying nature of the country. Flood scenarios and likelihood also increases if there are flood in north, northeastern India and Nepal due to the Ganges and the Brahmaputra taking the water downstream and draining it into the flood plains of Bangladesh. Floods are familiar feature in these parts of the world and the first settler came to flood water brining with them sediment from upstream which made the flood plains extremely fertile. In the last 50 years there has been over 8 major floods in Bangladesh. In addition to floods Bangladesh is regularly struck by cyclone and has been the recipient of the two worst cyclone disasters in term of mortality in human history (300,000 dead in 1970 and 140,000 dead in 1991). Although there hasn’t been any major earthquake in last 50 years, the area remain a seismically active region and with the large population densities, people remain vulnerable. Cyclones and floods have claimed approximately 520,000 live in the last 40 years. Although the cyclone have the major share of the victims, economic damages due to flood over the last 40 years is estimated to be over 14 Billion dollars. The country has also experienced major drought in the last few decades (1978-79, 1980s, 1990s), the 1978-79 drought affected half the country. (World Bank and GFDRR Publication Information , 2012)
Bangladesh: Climate Change
Bangladesh is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Due to it low lying nature of the country any problem arising from climate change have a exponential impact. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) reports suggest that increase of temperature as part of the global trend will increase the intensity and frequency of cyclone in the area. Global warming will also affect increasing glacial melting in the Himalayas, which in turn would increase the extent of the flooding in the delta basin in the future. Rising sea level will also disproportionately affect Bangladesh since majority of the population is located on areas that are just a few meters above sea level. (World Bank and GFDRR Publication Information , 2012) Scientific estimates predict, that by 2050 Bangladesh is set to lose 17% of its land due to flooding cause by climate change and this could lead as many 20 million environmental/climate change refugees. Prediction for Bangladesh looks extremely negative and forecast a difficult future for a lot of Bangladeshi citizens. (Natural Geographic)
Bangladesh Migration.
Since 1976 more than 7.1 million Bangladeshi citizens have migrated abroad to work. Remittances make up 11% of the GDP in 2010 more than its Foreign Direct Investment. Bangladeshi’s sees Labor Migration is seen as an important, viable livelihood option due to its socio-economic, ecological and geographic factors back home. (TWG, 2012) The Bangladeshi Diaspora population remains major diaspora communities in the world. The two largest Bengali Diaspora populations are located in United Kingdom and United States both half a million strong. (IOM and Ministry of Expatriates, 2004)There are no public data on long term migration originating from Bangladesh. BMET the body that look at short-term migration, does not track long term migration. In 2004, an International Organization for Migration study estimated that there are around 1.17 Million long-term migrants originating from Bangladesh. Early migrants were mostly unskilled, landless workers that were working on colonial ships who had jumped ships and primarily belong to Chittagong area or Sylhet area of Bangladesh. Later waver of migration were most 1970 after the creating of present day Bangladesh after its separation from Pakistan. Predominant made up of professionals and skilled workers. (IOM and Ministry of Expatriates, 2004)
Historically people from this area have migrated to neighboring Assam and Burma. During the Colonial rule large Bangla population were sent by the British to settle in both Assam and the Rakhan state of Burma. Also there have been wave of migration during the great famine of Bengal that claimed 1.2 million to escape sarvation. In addition to the official channels migration, there is a significant population of migrants origination from the country that leave using illegal/irregular channel causing problem both in Bangladesh and the host country. (TWG, 2012)
In addition to all of this, around one million people are at a risk as internal migrants displaced due to frequent natural disasters, droughts, floods and riverbank erosion. Studies predict that more and more people are going to be displaced due to Bangladesh’s particular fragility to natural disasters and the compounding effects of climate change. Current initiatives to combat this are awareness drives on environmental degradation and climate change and its relation to migration paterns. Use migration as a strategy to tackle climate change or reduce the impact of climate change. (movement from less favorable area to more favorable) (IOM, 2013)
Bangladesh Migrant Community in Assam
The state of Assam, India shares a highly porous border with Bangladesh, the terrain is extreme and it is hard to fence up the whole border. There are no documented figures on the number of illegal immigrant in Assam but studies have claimed that out of a total 26 million people, 6 million people are illegal Bangladeshi migrants. (Goswami, 2010)
Origins
Historically there has always been a Bengali population in the area since the colonial British times when there was a initial movement of people from the then Bengal to Assam. During Partition a significant Bengali Muslim Population stayed back in Assam as Indian citizen due to various reason not limited to social, economic, political factors. There was a conscious effort of the part of these initial waves of immigrants to assimilate the local culture and learn the local and adopt Assamese language. (Dutta, 2012) So, undeniably there has been a Muslim migrant population in Assam that came before independence and who have assimilated the culture and are/ identify them-selves as ‘Assamese Muslim’.
Post independence there has been a wave of migration of Bangladeshi nationals from across the border specifically after the creating of current Bangladesh state. There has been to no reliable data on the number of Bangladeshi immigrants in Assam since most channels for immigration are unofficial/illegal and not monitored. Immigrants flee the geo-socio economic situation back at home. Deteriorating environmental conditions in tandem with a cocktail of social, political, economic, and demographic drivers increasing influence decisions to migrate. International migration especially to regions like Assam is seen as one the most attractive option to displaced people, due to the historical, cultural and familial relations existing across borders. This trend aggravated by the porous border and weak border security. (Bhattacharyya & Werz, 2012)
A report commissioned by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), found evidence of large prevalent flow of migration between West Bengal and Bangladesh, specially in West Bengal and Assam. The Report goes on to comment that,
“It has been suggested that this is the largest single international migration flow, with more people involved than estimated for top-ranked Mexico-United States migration flows.” (ADB, 2012)
The Conflict
Historically the Hindu and Muslim population did not have tension. It was the Bengali speaking Hindu population that the local Assamese population had tension. These Bengali Hindu Migrants were brought into the region by British Colonialist to take up government job and populate the area. It was perceived that Bengali Hindu middle tried to maintain their hegemony over the native population by controlling government jobs and denying economic benefits that would otherwise given to the native population. (Dutta, 2012)
Out of this sentiment grew the Assam Movement (Axom Movement) was born, people rallied under with the leadership the All Assam Gana Sangram Parishan (AAGSP) and the All Assam Student’s Union (AASU), and out of this perceived conflict came the narrative of the ‘other’ vs the ‘native’. Initially the Assam Movement was against all ‘foreigners’, including citizen of India from other parts of India, vs the local/native who were ‘Assamese’. It was only later that these narratives changed to ‘Assamese’ vs ‘illegal immigrant’. (Bhattacharyya & Werz, 2012)
The current conflicts in began in the late 1970s when in a pre election census revealed more 70,000 illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in a localconstituency. This group was part of the second wave of migrants after creation of Bangladesh The ruling party was not seen as doing enough to actively engage the issue and protect the local population. When reports came out of the Congress party was engaging in vote bank politics trying to cash in on the immigrant vote instead of taking action against, the local Assamese population felt disenfranchised and angry seeing. This further reinforced the perception of the Assamese people that their resources, identity and homeland were homeland coming under threat of the ‘alien’. So under the leadership the All Assam Gana Sangram Parishan (AAGSP) and the All Assam Student’s Union (AASU), the local population rallied and thus began the Assam Movement. The movement called for the deportation of all ‘illegal’ Bangladeshi immigrants, maintaining that ‘illegal’ immigrants were influencing the local economy, security and political system and the local demographic structure. By 1985 the movement had claimed 7000 lives. The movement ended with the signing of the Assam Accord. (Bhattacharyya & Werz, 2012)
The following major are the recommendation made to address the illegal immigration issue:
- Any immigrants arriving before January 1, 1966 will be recognized as citizens
- Any immigrants arriving between January 1, 1966 and March 25, 1971 to fall under the Foreigner Act (naturalized after 10 years)
- Any immigrants arriving after 1971 to be identified; removed from electoral rolls and deported. (Govt of Assam, 1985)
Although the Accords was seen then as hope to finally resolve or start to resolve the Bangladeshi Migrant issue. It had several issue. There were several problems with the implementation of the accord. It was really difficult to prove who was an immigrant and who was not. It was never really ratified by the Indian Parliament and under Indian law an accord cannot be legally enforced. (The Sentinal , 2014 )The political situation in Assam was in flux and the state had an insurgency crisis. Political parties were seen as solicitation the migrant vote and engaging in vote bank politics. With the continue inflow of Migrant from Bangladesh put further stain on the resources on the state. Recent wave of the conflict have manifest in clashes between member of the Assamese Bodo tribe and the Muslim community, which have killed over 100 people and displaced over 400,000 people. (CNN-IBN, 2012)
The Rohingya Community in Bangladesh
Origins
The Rohingya people are an ethnic minority group in the Republic of Myanmar. There one of the most persecuted group in modern history, having being denied citizenship by the Burmese Government. There has been a systematicdenial of their basic Human rights. The Burmese Juntas policies of ethnic cleansing and oppression led to the first wave of Rohingya refugees to Bangladesh. (Ullah, 2011)
The Rohingya people claim to be descendant of Moorish, Arab and Persian traders, and Moghul, Turk, Pathan and Bengali Soilders (Ahmed) while the narrative from the ‘Burmese’ side it that that they are predominantly Bengali Muslim from the Chittagong Region of Bengal who came over to Burma during colonial time by the British. The history is actually somewhere in the middle, there has been a of an small Islamic community in the Arakan state since centuries and between 15th and 19th Century AD Islamic influence grew with the greater Bengal-Arakan region. Between 1784-1824, Arakan came under the rule of the Burmese Kingdom. (Rahman, 2010) During this period there was a huge wave of migration of Arakanese people into Colonial Bengal due to the people fleeing persecution and oppression at the hand of Burmese invaders, leaving the area depopulated. It was only after the annexation of Arakan by the British that some of these Arakanese started returned to Arakan along with a large group of migrants from Bengal primarily the Chittagong District. They were brought into Burma by the British Colonialist primarily as laborers and to repopulate the area, many socio political and economic motives for migration but primarily for the fertile lands and escape for the harsh Zamindari system in Bengal. (Chan, 2005) After independence from British Colonial rule, Arakan like the rest of the Burma was plagued by political violence, but here the political tension took ethnic/religious tone. There were two main opposing groups the Burmese nationalist and the Muslim nationalist. The Muslim nationalist leaders in the region started movements and agitations demanding for the region to merge with East Pakistan or become a separate state entirely. It was during this time that Muslim nationalist started calling themselves ‘Rohingyas’. After the Military Socialist Government of Ne Win came to power in 1961, there a systematic oppression of the Muslim Population. Under General Wi, the Burmese junta government started systematically oppressing, persecuting, torturing and coercing the Muslim population. (Smith, 2006) These policies have forced the Muslim population (Rohingya) to flee to Bangladesh in massive number on two separate occasions. The first wave was in 1978, when 250,000 Rohingya fleed in Bangladesh. Bangladesh initially welcome the refugee being the first due to being the first country of asylum but later on asked for UN assistance as they could not continue the shelter for an indefinite amount of time. So 1979, more than 180,000 were repatriated by UNHCR back into Burma. The second wave consisted approximately 250,000 came into Bangladesh in 1991/1992 fleeing operation Pyi Thaya. Recent Waves of violence has forced even more Rohingya to into Bangladesh. Currently there are 2 Refugee camp in Bangladesh sheltering a total population of 2900 and a further 200,000 are living in unofficial camps and Bangladeshi villages located in the southeastern part of Bangladesh along the Burmese border. (Refugee International )
Bangladesh has moral and legal obligation under international law to provide asylum to the Rohingya. But due to Bangladeshs large population and geographical, political, economical and demographical problems, it is not well equipped to handle such responsibility. Bangladesh has been constantly refusing recent waves of Rohingya refugee, as they already have such a large refugee population that they cannot take care of properly.
Human Right Watch had to say the following about the mistreatment of Rohingya Refugee in Bangladesh.
“Authorities refuse to permit permanent structures to be built in the camps as a way of encouraging refugees to return home. Children are denied access to education. The provision of health services and access to medicines is also limited by the authorities, as are work and livelihood opportunities inside the camp.” (Human Rights Watch , 2007)
This neglect of the Refugee in the camp leads to refugee becoming increasingly vulnerable and results in radicalization of the Refugee. Most of the Camp are fertile recruitment grounds for Islamic Militant, as see little or no other option to fight for their survival and their interests. (Rahman, 2010)
Refugee are getting involved in the illegal firearms and narcotics smuggling. Burma and Bangladesh share a 129 Km border, which is largely unguarded. Aided by an extended smuggling network extending into the Refugee camp, the smuggling is a thriving trade. (Monu, 2004)
The constant influx of Refugees into Bangladesh has caused economic problem in the area. Large-scale socio-economic disparities between the communities mean that the Rohingya laborers are willing to work for far less than what the Bangladeshi people are. This creates a clash of interest and causes conflicts. They have also put additional strain on the natural resources specially land resources in the region. (Rahman, 2010)
The area where most of the refugee population is located is the south east part of the country and as mention above in the paper, the south-eastern part of Bangladesh is the most vulnerable area to climate change, with high risk arising from major natural disasters like floods, landslide, droughts, earthquakes and cyclones. (Earth Institute, Columbia University) Large scale logging activities to clear out space for refugee population to inhabited and overexploitation of forest resources for sustenance has further degraded the local ecology. (Uddin & Khan, 2007)
Conclusions & Suggestions
Bangladesh as of late has been a development model for poor states. The have achieved this though a multitude of factors including empowering women and making them the central to the development, creating micro finance institutions through NGOs, a willingness of the government to engage with NGOs and using migration as a engine from economic growth. They have also use disaster management tools and have created better disaster detection and response mechanism. The last major cyclone had only.
Migration from Bangladesh has always existed due to an various reason not limited to economic, social, political factors as well as due to natural disasters. There are numerous examples of this trend: the 7 million odd short-term migrant workers, the one international diaspora communities in the world, Migrants to the Indian States of Assam and Bengal, to Burma during colonial rule.
Bangladesh unique geography and concentration of high population density in low area is makes it one of the most fragile and vulnerable countries in terms of risk from natural disaster. With most of its population affected by water related natural disaster or cyclones.. Climate change further aggravates the situation, creating more extreme climatic conditions and weather scenarios, due to geographic location increasing risk disproportionately.
Due to the extreme environmental conditions and further deterioration by climate change; has made migration is not a choice but a matter of survival. The Border with India still remains porous and Extreme terrain has made fencing and border control difficult. There are established route of migration legal and illegal. Due to the presence of an already established Bengali community in Assam and there are historical and familial connection with the area, this along with the perception of land availability largely influences decision to migrate to places like Assam. The local Assamese population perceives real or not a competition for resources in their home state from the massive migration of immigrants. The local host population in Assam sees this migrant population as competition for the resources in the area. This creating tensions and conflict radicalizes of communities with a them vs other narratives. Further immigration will cause more problems and escalate tension further. But Assam still seems like an attractive option for these migrants for some the only option.
The root cause of this continued forced migration is the Bangladesh is due to natural disaster, which seems to be increasing with intensity and a wider area of effect. There are going to be an estimated 20 million estimated refugee going to be caused due to environmental reason/climate change. This should be a worrying statistic not only for Bangladesh and its immediate neighbor but also the international community.
The situation of the Rohingya refugee in Bangladesh is extremely dire. Bangladesh has a moral and legal obligation to care of these refugees and to a certain extent; historical, though origins of the Rohingya community are disputed there is no denying the evidence for the intermixing of the Muslim communities on both sides. With its high risk to natural disaster and its high risk to climate change, Bangladesh has too many problems and is ill equipped to take care of the Refugee problem. Bangladesh has been trying to repatriate these refugee back into Burma, but efforts have failed due them returning back every time there is a fresh wave of violence.
The systematic denial of the refugee human security by the Bangladeshi state has wide spread political, economic and social consequences. Refugee camp and settlement have become hotbed for illegal activities like recruitment ground for terrorists, smuggling of arms and illegal drugs. There is increasingly precarious security situation develop in these camp. Bangladesh needs a comprehensive rethink in its approach to the Rohingya People.
As we can see above Climate Change remain at the heart of both problem both communities. Climate Change induced migration is one of main causes for the large migration of Bangladeshi into Assam and it is due its effects that Bangladesh cannot take care of the Rohingya Refugee population. The influx of foreigner creates a competition for resources; climate change has compounded this problem. Which leads to lead to escalation of tension and radicalization in both the host and migrant population in both contexts. Climate change also disproportionately affects the conditions of the Rohingya refugee, the area they is at a risk from 5 major natural disasters. .
The problems are only seeming to been increasing every year. There is a need for proper mechanism for under the international community to deal with issue related to environmental /climate change refugees. Current trends are not sustainable and will lead to far reaching socio-economic and political consequences, any unchecked increase of the Bengali migrant community will increase population pressure on the limited resources, further denial of basic human security will lead to the creating of a security problem in Bangladesh.
Refugee law need to modified to include people displace due to ‘environment/climate change’ induced migration. The ‘illegal’ immigrants that come to Assam are escaping situations of life and death caused by Natural Disasters. Compulsive push of circumstance become too much and as such ‘refugee’ is a more accurate description of these people. Both communities has been neglected by the their host countries and if there was a international mechanism, there would be a better way with dealing the migration caused by climate change to Assam as well as use the system to help maybe Rohingya Refugee to as they too occupy/live in n a area where climate change has serious impacts. If not at least reduce the stain on Bangladeshi government, thus enabling it to better take care of its Rohingya population.
There is urgent need for creating workable solution to the problem like work permits, temporary citizen are needed. Due to discrimination and persecution, both the migrant community in Assam and the Refugee population are considerable more underprivileged and underdeveloped then the host population. There is a need to uplift the conditions of both communities along educational, socioeconomically and political lines. Bangladesh and India in the mean time should look to provide some form of right to these communities, denying right further may to the fostering of extremist element in the society and will cause farm-reaching problems for the security of the region. Also there is need for some kind of Track II diplomacy between the migrant populations and the host population is needed to reduce tension and humanization of the other side.
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